There are three categories of tools you can use to make product decisions. You can use data, frameworks, and intuition. Experienced product managers know when and how to use all three tools.
A pattern I have seen repeatedly is that new product managers overly depend on their intuition, rather than on data and frameworks. Such intuition is often wrong and leads to decisions that are based on the whims of an unseasoned PM, rather than on more rigorous analysis.
As PMs gain more experience, they become much more data-driven. This is generally A Good Thing. Some PMs become so data-driven that they become paralyzed in the absence of data. They are also at-risk of being misled by data. If all product decisions could be made purely with data, then we could automate the job of product managers. Data is a tool and an experienced PM knows when and how to leverage this tool in intellectually honest and rigorous ways. The PM needs to determine what metrics to track, understand Type 1 and Type 2 statistical errors, understand the limits and biases of the datasets that underlie their analyses, etc.
The next step up from data are frameworks. Frameworks are mental models that help you to understand an ambiguous problem space. Frameworks can be used to structure a data-driven analysis. For example, a framework can be constructed to determine the metrics to track, the goals to set, the variables to measure, etc. Frameworks are also useful as decision making tools in the absence of data. Product design decisions on zero-to-one products without precedent cannot be made in a data-driven way because the data does not exist. In such scenarios, frameworks are very useful to distill ambiguity into clarity.
The last step up is a full-circle back to intuition. Very experienced product managers are able to make “correct” decisions rapidly and without conscious consideration of an option space, statistical analysis, or explicit use of frameworks. Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow” makes his groundbreaking research on human cognitive decision systems accessible to the layperson and should be required reading for any product manager. The premise is that human decision making relies on two distinct systems. System 1 makes fast “automatic” decisions using subconscious pattern recognition mechanisms. System 2 is slower and uses conscious, effortful, logical, and analytical mechanisms. PMs with highly developed product intuition are in effect able to make some/most product design decisions using System 1.
Experienced PMs will instinctively know when to rely on their intuition and when to rely on frameworks and data. They are able to make high velocity correct decisions by relying on their intuition and can shift to lower velocity systems (frameworks, data) when making decisions in areas outside of their developed intuition.
I would assert that for 99% of the population, sound product intuition is earned via years of applying rigorous thinking tools (frameworks, data). Seasoned PMs learned by shipping many product successes and product failures. A very small set of exceptional product leaders possess highly developed “built-in” product intuition. The canonical examples are obvious: Steve Jobs and Elon Musk (I cannot think of a third example). However, most of us do not operate in these rarified circles, and must develop our product sense the old fashioned way.